GasForecasting: Forecasting natural gas consumption in the electroproduction sector, funded by the Public Supplier Company S.A. (DEPA), Greece

The project aims at the development of a model for providing robust forecasting of natural gas consumption at the electroproduction sector. The forecasts are based on a unit commitment model that incorporates technical, economic and environmental constraints towards finding an optimum solution of the short-term power system operation. The consideration of critical parameters, such as start-up costs, ramping capacity, ancillary services affect the contribution of natural gas in the energy mix. The project endogenizes critical uncertainties, such as the crude oil spot price, natural gas spot price and CO2 emission allowances prices, by implementing monte-carlo analysis, towards providing the ranges for natural gas penetration.